Tesla shares have slid over 20% year-to-date into the mid-$300s, trading around critical support and resistance zones (around 338, 356, 390–400) that signal either extended sell-offs or tactical bounces. Options flow has featured both large put sales at the bid and dramatic call spikes, yet filings show no major whale accumulation. Traders are eyeing earnings, the upcoming SpaceX IPO and key moving-average levels for triggers that could force renewed selling or a quick V-shaped reversal.

Q1 production reached just over 408,000 vehicles against roughly 358,000 deliveries, leaving a nearly 50,000-unit surplus in inventory. US EV share climbed from 43.2% to 54.2% year-over-year while Tesla manufactured about 1.65 million vehicles in 2025. Deliveries and production are set to ramp through 2026 with launches of the Semi and Cybercab Robotaxi in dedicated facilities. Energy storage drives higher gross margins than automotive, supporting overall profitability. Guidance targets roughly $21–22 billion in Q1 revenue with $0.33–0.37 EPS, alongside $1.5–2 billion cash burn and over $20 billion in capex for AI chip development and factory expansion.

Approval for supervised Full Self-Driving is advancing via the Netherlands toward EU-wide mutual recognition, while U.S. robotaxi deployment depends on varied state regimes—from permissive Texas and Florida to rigorous California standards. Chip capacity and memory supply are constrained by Dojo-grade packaging deals with Intel, Samsung and SK Hynix, with AI5 tape-out targeting 2027 volume and LPDDR5X today ahead of LPDDR6 for AI6 amid DRAM tightness. Tariff headwinds and shifting EV tax credits in China and the U.S. reshape cross-border pricing, and long-haul freight economics hinge on scaling megawatt charging infrastructure alongside Megapack grid-scale deployments.

Enthusiasm around Tesla’s AI5 chip completion and FSD progress is driving bullish upgrades, analyst upgrades to neutral or buy, and buy-the-dip retail conviction based on a robotaxi future. Countervailing skepticism over mounting cash burn, execution delays in vehicle deliveries, and bearish forecasts has some investors selling ahead of the SpaceX IPO and warning of overvaluation.