Newmont Projects Lower Gold Production but Strong Earnings in 2026
PILLAR DIAGNOSTIC // WEEK 2026-04
“A binding supply ceiling at ~5.3 Moz in 2026 driven by mature-asset sequencing and rising AISC is colliding with bullish EBITDA-fueled growth forecasts that haven’t priced in constrained output or external shocks, leaving upside capped until volume shortfalls trigger a repricing.”
Proposed action
Trim existing long exposure or avoid adding new positions; consider hedging against further downside.
THE MECHANICS
Tape & flow
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THE MACHINE
Operational momentum
Record adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion and revenues of $22.8 billion in 2025 underscore solid margin expansion and cash flow generation, supported by operational efficiency and ongoing growth projects, even as Q4 gold production fell 24% YoY and full‐year output is set to decline modestly amid rising AISC to $1,680/oz.
THE MAP
Structure & constraints
Planned sequencing at matured assets and transitions at key sites will cap gold output around 5.3 million ounces in 2026, driving all-in sustaining costs higher via lower volumes, elevated royalties and taxes, and rising operating spend, while external shocks ranging from Persian Gulf shipping blockades to extreme El Niño weather pose additional supply-chain risks.
THE MOOD
Consensus & positioning
Investor optimism centers on Newmont’s attractive valuation, robust dividends and share buybacks, and strong factor- and gold-driven momentum, though a subset of the market questions whether cost pressures and the earnings upgrade cycle can sustain.