“Near-term labour disruption from AI will be sharp but uneven: 10-20 % of current white-collar positions are likely to be displaced or consolidated over the next 2-4 years, yet the majority of tasks—and therefore jobs—will be re-scoped rather than eradicated. Internal conflicts resolve by recognising timing and framing differences: claims predicting outright job losses describe the first-order impact of productivity shocks, while claims foreseeing workforce expansion focus on second-order adjustments (new AI-augmented roles, productivity-driven demand, policy buffers). Thus, the integrated view is a high-churn, high-transition environment rather than a terminal “jobpocalypse.” Overall risk posture: ELEVATED TRANSITION RISK (not existential, but materially disruptive).”