Meet Kevin

“The strategy that I call bank hacking works really well if you don't have children. You can still do it if you have children, but here we go. buy a smaller home than you actually want.”

“soon as you make money, you upgrade your lifestyle on nicer houses, cars, boats, planes, or gadgets. Even as all of your costs and bills keep going up, then you're stuck making massive payments because somebody told you to take a loan out on it because you're going to get a tax write off.”

“the pro knows that if your neighbor wins the lottery or somehow gets a lot of income suddenly, for every extra $1,000 they earn, you are 2% more likely to go bankrupt. That is a proven statistic for this toxicity of relativity.”

“Stock markets rarely sustain two standard deviations above average returns for four years straight. That means in English there is a statistical 85% chance the market moves sideways or”

“Stock markets rarely sustain two standard deviations above average returns for four years straight. That means in English there is a statistical 85% chance the market moves sideways or down in 2026.”

“The pro knows this. The pro says cars generally 99% of the time are really depreciating assets. Uh, as some like to say, if it flies, floats, drives, or there's another crude part to this, rent it. Don't buy it. And that's typically true because they go down in value.”

“Goldman Sachs actually makes the argument that if this continues and we end up seeing oil prices hit $150, then quote, uh, we would almost certainly trigger recessionary dynamics and rapid demand destruction from consumers.”

“Nvidia absolutely just dominated earnings as always. Eight out of eight of our last earnings reports. Nvidia's absolutely crushed it. And so here they are again beating on earnings.”

“a lot of people are still actively concerned that private credit is collapsing in front of our eyes. And to some extent, they have a point of concern. We got talk about private credit funds having a lot of stress and selling for less than what they're worth.”

“These companies are called Eagle Point Credit, Soundpoint Meridian, Pearl Diver Credit, Oxford Lane Capital, Carile Credit. Notice they all sound like they have really fancy institutional names. Great. All of them have lost 15 to 35% in less than 90 days. Those are massive plummets for collateralized loan obligation equity funds.”

“And unfortunately, UBS is now saying that private credit right up here, private credit might end up seeing defaults as high as 15%. They saw it as high as 13% just 4 weeks ago. Now they're revising that up even higher to 15% which suggests that the private credit rows are actually worsening in real time.”

“Now they're revising that up even higher to 15% which suggests that the private credit rows are actually worsening in real time. Now defaults are currently only at 3 to 5%. Which means they expect defaults to five to 3x 3 to 5x.”

“AI in other words or agentic AI will eventually become so good that it will do a lot of things for us without software platforms. For example, what do you need Door Dash for if agents can just remove the friction of you using an app at all?”

“Now, Citadel Securities did end up responding to the Citrini piece, which I find is very interesting. They actually mentioned that job postings for software engineers right now are actually rapidly rising, up 11% year-over-year.”

“That's because as soon as hoop hits the fan, the Federal Reserve will drive interest rates to zero. And guess who's going to benefit off that first? Rich or people who own assets.”

“Citadel Securities did end up responding to the Citrini piece, which I find is very interesting. They actually mentioned that job postings for software engineers right now are actually rapidly rising, up 11% year-over-year.”

“Robin Hood invested about $155 million into these venture equity positions. On day one, they're going to take about $125 million back. So, I guess they're not dumping all of it. They're going to be dumping about 80% of the shares that they had.”

“I think this Robin Hood venture fund will really trade like a meme token. rapid ups and downs with no fundamental trajection or trajectory at all.”

“It's a sign that once again Wall Street is looking for buyers for the riskiest part of private equity, the equity part. Remember the private credit side, which is where we're having a lot of issues in markets now.”

“UBS just downgraded the stock market and Sockjen is freaking out about the consumer and private credit is getting worse yet again. Again, at the same time as UBS is downgrading the stock market.”

“we can see that recovery ended and has now started to collapse. Uh and it's collapsing relatively rapidly. In fact, starting on liberation day, we have had not an up day uh in the personal savings rate or month rather since this is calculated on a monthly basis. So that savings rate is compressing.”

“This is a market that says we have been propped up by a private credit explosion that's gone from under a trillion dollars to 3.4 4 in 2025 and is projected to grow to 4.9 in 2029. But honestly, these projections might end up dying with how much of a collapse we're seeing in private credit.”

“No problem. We'll just add the $2 million to your final bill in the form of new debt. So, it's basically debt on top of debt... it's never actually going to get paid off. We can still count this as income on our books and and they can still collect their AUM fees.”

“But if this private credit issue continues to expand, it starts hitting our big institutions. Big institutions then have to sell stocks to rebalance their books and try to stop the bleeding. That creates more fear in the market because we get more selling.”

“Amazon's $50 billion investment into Open AI now could hinge on IPO or AGI. In other words, new strings attached. ... And until you do that, we're actually only going to invest $15 billion maybe because that's just still being negotiated.”

“This is starting to sound a whole lot like the walkback that Nvidia just pulled on OpenAI. Remember when Nvidia had that joint press release... Jensen kind of rugpulled that and oh no, no, we never had that idea.”

“The total supply related commitments that Nvidia has are $95.2 billion. In other words, in order for them to actually manufacture the product that they need for the next quote several quarters... They need to spend $95.2 billion.”

“The total supply related commitments that Nvidia has are $95.2 billion. In other words, in order for them to actually manufacture the product that they need for the next quote several quarters, which is probably three quarters, right? Just to get through the the rest of this calendar year probably or their fiscal year roughly the same. They need to spend $95.2 billion.”

“And the market is expecting two rate cuts this year. How many rate cuts are we actually going to get this year, Ross? Zero. Zero. don't do not expect rate cuts.”

“The last thing we want right now is a negative print on top of this geopolitical turmoil because usually geopolitical turmoil is a buy the dip opportunity. However, if you combine that with a negative jobs print, the market will absolutely poop its pants.”

“I'm pretty sure Iraq has stopped piping oil to Turkey. I want to verify that. Uh, the Iraq Turkey pipeline ITP has been halted due to security concerns.”

“Uh, the Iraq Turkey pipeline ITP has been halted due to security concerns. Yes. Okay. So, hold on. Jack's saying goodbye.”

“We're in for a painful 18 to 24 months as private credit confronts a similar cash crunch that private equity funds have been enduring. Soros says that... they're basically forecasting the private credit crunch could last, you know, 18 to 24 months.”

“We're in for a painful 18 to 24 months as private credit confronts a similar cash crunch that private equity funds have been enduring. Soros says that... they're basically forecasting the private credit crunch could last 18 to 24 months.”

“You still can't get back to 2%. This is actually a great chart because it really shows you that pickup. We're really not cooling towards 2% anymore. We've essentially stalled on inflationary progress.”

“Yeah, cuz a Patriot costs 4 million bucks, you know, and you could send fighter jets, but you know, now we've had fighter jets crash.”

“Chat bots become a commodity eventually. All those valuations collapse. Just hope that doesn't push you into a recession.”

“This is an over five sigma miss from the estimates. This is a really bad labor report. The odds of this happening well under 1% statistically to have this bad of a miss.”

“I've been on this channel saying we are we're basically walking on the edge of a cliff and we're just hoping that the foundation beneath us doesn't crumble. That's exactly what I said yesterday.”

“Morgan Stanley. These are big layoff numbers. Now the problem is this is really stagflationary.”

“This BLS labor report is, in my opinion, complete fugazi BS. This is not good.”

“It's negative 92,000 on the payrolls report. That's also crappola. Now, I'm going to take a quick look to see what else um if anything the suits have here. I've mostly just been reading this report, but again, a negative 92,000 read here is bad.”

“I want you to see the black unemployment. Does it show it here? Uh yes, here. Uh black unemployment rose from 7.3 to 77. You have to compare to the prior report to see this one.”

“92K jobs uh report uh major miss uh participation rate collapses which uh would have skyrocketed uh the unemployment rate had it held. Uh and then on top of that uh we have uh negative 180k on the households. Right? This is a very bad report.”

“And we can see that Gardner, which I actually agree with, is projecting that we'll create more jobs as a result of artificial intelligence rather than losing more jobs because of artificial intelligence thanks to new industries being created via creative destruction or whatever. We'll see that turnaround by about 2029 to 2030.”

“Consider this. $130 billion of refunds have been ordered to begin per judge last night. I think this is bullish the economy and bullish jobs. Uh this uh refund I think will enable more hiring which is good and I can use this extra capital to expand your business.”

“So, I'm optimistic about the BLS jobs data, mostly because I think Donald Trump's just going to rig it. So, I'm not going to pay much attention to it. I just think markets will recover after we get it.”

“bullish about jobs data tomorrow, which is expecting a 55,000 job print, anything really over 30 to 40 is going to be good, good enough.”

“probably the o open AAI IPO in the fourth quarter and then SpaceX will probably be Q3 is my guess”

“Probably the open AAI IPO in the fourth quarter and then SpaceX will probably be Q3 is my guess like August somewhere around there right August September uh that would be my guess we'll see.”

“Then we'll get past the Trump inflation. I actually think Trump's tariffs will get totally removed in 2029 under a new administration.”

“The CEO of the collapsed lender, MFS, spent a bunch of money on uh on artwork... And then when the bankruptcy folks come in because they double pledged like over a billion dollars of assets, all of a sudden all the walls were bare. The guy basically ninjaed all the stuff because he's a big fraud.”

“But you really get a fragmentation of the country, maybe a 20% chance, where local splinter cells take over and these local militias end up creating more fighting in the Middle East.”

“I'm actually broadly optimistic and historically geopolitics are by the dip. That's what I sent in the daily wealth.”