“Despite rhetorical claims that “regime change” is complete, operational planning and threats of further strikes show the old leadership in Tehran still functions and the war is not over. The most plausible reading is that Washington is using victory-language as leverage while keeping military pressure high; Tehran rejects the narrative to deny the U.S. political gains. This narrative gap is politically large but mechanically bridgeable: once both sides can claim face-saving success (U.S.: goals met; Iran: sovereignty intact), a limited cease-fire tied to reopening Hormuz becomes feasible. Therefore the theatre sits in a HIGH-BUT-POTENTIALLY-STABILISING posture—escalation is still possible in the next 48-72 h if talks stall, but a negotiated pause is equally plausible if public messaging converges.”