Eli Lilly's stock has recently been downgraded from 'Hold' to 'Reduce' by HSBC, with concerns over inflated expectations for the obesity drug market and a lowered price target of $850. While the company holds a dominant 60% market share in the GLP-1 sector, it is now grappling with intensified price competition and a crucial FDA decision regarding its oral obesity treatment, orforglipron, expected soon. Analysts predict the weight loss drug market could reach $100 billion by the end of the decade, but skepticism over total addressable market estimates adds pressure on Lilly's future revenue prospects.
“Meanwhile, Eli Liy just signed a $7 billion deal to acquire a peptide company out of China. China. So, Lily's buying a peptide company from China while lobbying government officials and saying it's dangerous to use products from China”
“Analysts predict that the weight loss drug market could reach almost $100 billion by the end of the decade, so this growth story is far from over. And Lilly, which holds 60% of the U.S. market, is well positioned to benefit.”
“Demand has been high, even surpassing supply at certain points, as tirzepatide and rival semaglutide, sold by Novo Nordisk, have proven their ability to help people lose weight safely over a period of months.”
“Currently, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate this space with their respective injectable therapies.”
“Notably, Novo Nordisk just released a GLP-1 pill, beating Eli Lilly to market again. That will give Novo Nordisk time to regain market share as Eli Lilly works to get its own pill approved by the FDA.”
“Lilly has better drugs for weight loss than the competitors. And soon GLP3 is coming. Many here on the west coast are already using this drug and it’s way better than GLP1.”
“On March 16, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) announced that its weight-loss drug Zepbound will be available for self-pay starting at $299 per month for the 2.5 mg dose through LillyDirect and major pharmacies...”
“With the new Medicare and Medicaid Services implementation details, Eli Lilly is to make Zepbound (tirzepatide), Mounjaro (tirzepatide), and orforglipron, if approved, available through the Medicare Part D participating plans.”
“Consequently, beneficiaries will have out-of-pocket costs capped at $50 a month. Before patients reach their deductible, they will have their cost-sharing limited to $245 a month.”
“An approval could offer Lilly stock a lift, particularly since its valuation today, after declines, is more attractive than it was a few months ago. Analysts predict that the weight loss drug market could reach almost $100 billion by the end of the decade, so this growth story is far from over. And Lilly, which holds 60% of the U.S. market, is well positioned to benefit.”
“Lilly has submitted orforglipron, its oral weight loss candidate, to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and regulators are expected to issue a decision very soon. In fact, Reuters reported that the action date for the potential drug is April 10.”
“Viking's lead candidate, VK2735, uses the same mechanism of action as Eli Lilly's blockbuster drug Zepbound.”
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