“Regional energy infrastructure will remain under sporadic attack over the next 2-4 weeks, keeping roughly 10-15 % of Saudi output and smaller Gulf facilities intermittently offline. However, the probability of a large-scale U.S.–Iran escalation has fallen: Washington is signalling diplomacy (multiple strike postponements), while Tehran is leveraging threats to secure concessions rather than closing Hormuz outright. Behind-the-scenes talks are therefore likely—even though both sides publicly deny or mock them—pointing to a messy but progressive de-escalation by late April, with production gradually recovering and oil prices retreating from their spike.”