Cross-chain transfer volume hits a fresh high (> $200 b) as CCTP and the new Interop Stack are integrated into Coinbase Wallet and two major custodians. Liquidity fracturing from USDT pair removals causes 4–6 % intraday swings in BTC/ETH during week 19, but arbitrage quickly re-anchors spreads. Three isolated freeze events (totaling $42 m) are executed under court orders without breaking the peg, reinforcing the ‘programmable compliance’ narrative. Security spend rises after two minor bridge exploits (no USDC lost) prompt an emergency audit wave across 18 DeFi protocols.

Circle’s 11 May earnings beat street estimates (Q1 revenue +58 % YoY to $845 m; adj. EBITDA margin 41 %), but guidance is flat: management signals USDC supply caps tied to new reserve-segregation rules. Even so, forced rotation out of USDT pushes USDC circulation to a closing-month range of $79–81 b, with daily burn/mint volatility doubling to ~$4.3 b. Arc network moves from closed beta to “validator dry-run,” clearing >350 m txs at sub-second finality and <0.1 USD fees, setting the stage for a late-Q3 mainnet. Treasury-bill yields above 4 % keep reserve income healthy, offsetting higher compliance OPEX.

May will be dominated by the first hard deadlines under the U.S. GENIUS Act and the MiCA pre-authorisation window in Europe. Large exchanges and payment processors scramble to file licensing packs, while a handful of banks (Barclays, BNY-Mellon, Société Générale) quietly pilot bank-issued EUR and GBP tokens using Circle’s CCTP rails. Russia’s mandatory licensing regime comes into force on 15 May, adding to the global compliance drumbeat and accelerating the delisting of non-attested stablecoins in CEEMEA venues. Net effect: policy risk peaks mid-month, then fades as most Tier-1 venues obtain provisional approvals, locking in USDC—as the only fully attested dollar token—as the reference asset for cross-border settlement.

Sentiment starts defensive—fear over licence lapses and security hacks drives the USDC 7-day redemption spike to its highest since 2025—then flips constructive after Circle’s earnings and Arc progress. Sell-side lifts 12-month price targets on CRCL by 12–15 %, but buy-side remains selective, favouring yield-bearing USDC pools over equity. Social chatter shifts from “reg-choke” to “flight-to-quality,” with USDC mentions outpacing USDT 5:1 for the first time.