“Overall narrative signals that U.S. leadership believes its unparalleled military strength has already neutralised Iran’s capabilities and placed Washington in a favourable negotiating position. Public statements emphasise overwhelming force, rapid victories, and a desire to convert battlefield leverage into a diplomatic settlement. Consequently, the short-term military risk is assessed as LOW-TO-MODERATE (kinetic exchanges appear largely concluded), while the principal risk now shifts to POLITICAL—whether negotiations fail and rhetoric re-escalates. Absent contradictory evidence, pillars are internally consistent, so no divergence remains to be resolved.”