“Regional tension around Colombia is elevated but not yet unstable. President Petro’s public accusation against Ecuador and his simultaneous legal exposure in the United States look more like political positioning than preparation for open conflict. The newly announced U.S.–led Counter-Cartel Coalition does raise the ceiling for cross-border military activity, yet no operational orders or troop movements have been verified. If partners keep investigations, counter-cartel actions, and border incidents on separate diplomatic tracks, the most likely trajectory is a period of noisy rhetoric, legal maneuvering, and limited security operations—not a rapid slide into interstate warfare.”