“The combined reading of the four pillars points to a HIGH INFORMATION-WARFARE RISK and a MODERATE–HIGH GEOPOLITICAL ESCALATION RISK. Mechanically, Iran’s conventional capability is eroding, but its use of AI-enabled disinformation is expanding and may offset battlefield losses by shaping global narratives. Mood traffic shows that this information campaign is already muddying public debate in the United States and allied states, particularly through fabricated links between Trump, Epstein, and the current war. Machine analysis warns that any large-scale U.S. operation would be slow and hazardous, implying that Washington cannot rely on a quick military fix. Map-pillar side threads (Epstein medical records, cellmate rumours) highlight how fringe material is being weaponised to erode trust in authoritative channels. Divergence DIV-INT-01 is reconciled by recognising that Tehran’s public posture (denial of talks, claims of victory) is a deliberate psychological facade; in parallel, private channels likely continue to test de-escalatory off-ramps. The risk posture therefore remains: • Information domain: HIGH (active hostile operations). • Kinetic domain: MODERATE, with potential spikes if misperceptions created online trigger policy over-reaction. Outlook 30–60 days: sustained digital confrontation, intermittent military probes, mounting fatigue among U.S. allies.”