“Given the centrality of the US–Iran cease-fire talks to global economic stability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, the risk posture is set at Moderate. While the potential for disruption remains elevated, ongoing mediated negotiations and active communications offer a viable path to de-escalation. The unified signals from the map and mood pillars—with no unresolved divergences—point to a synchronized outlook: negotiations are the critical lever for reducing systemic risk.”