Meet Kevin

Subject

Gartner > job creation by AI

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And we can see that Gardner, which I actually agree with, is projecting that we'll create more jobs as a result of artificial intelligence rather than losing more jobs because of artificial intelligence thanks to new industries being created via creative destruction or whatever. We'll see that turnaround by about 2029 to 2030.

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Tariff refunds > US economy

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Consider this. $130 billion of refunds have been ordered to begin per judge last night. I think this is bullish the economy and bullish jobs. Uh this uh refund I think will enable more hiring which is good and I can use this extra capital to expand your business.

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BLS jobs data > market reaction

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So, I'm optimistic about the BLS jobs data, mostly because I think Donald Trump's just going to rig it. So, I'm not going to pay much attention to it. I just think markets will recover after we get it.

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BLS jobs data > 55,000 job print

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bullish about jobs data tomorrow, which is expecting a 55,000 job print, anything really over 30 to 40 is going to be good, good enough.

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OpenAI > IPO

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Probably the open AAI IPO in the fourth quarter and then SpaceX will probably be Q3 is my guess like August somewhere around there right August September uh that would be my guess we'll see.

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Donald Trump's tariffs > removed

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Then we'll get past the Trump inflation. I actually think Trump's tariffs will get totally removed in 2029 under a new administration.

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MFS CEO > fraud

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The CEO of the collapsed lender, MFS, spent a bunch of money on uh on artwork... And then when the bankruptcy folks come in because they double pledged like over a billion dollars of assets, all of a sudden all the walls were bare. The guy basically ninjaed all the stuff because he's a big fraud.

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February labor report > 5 sigma

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This is an over five sigma miss from the estimates. This is a really bad labor report. The odds of this happening well under 1% statistically to have this bad of a miss.

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US Labor Market > recession

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I've been on this channel saying we are we're basically walking on the edge of a cliff and we're just hoping that the foundation beneath us doesn't crumble. That's exactly what I said yesterday.

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The US Economy > stagflation

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Morgan Stanley. These are big layoff numbers. Now the problem is this is really stagflationary.

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BLS Labor Report > unreliable

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This BLS labor report is, in my opinion, complete fugazi BS. This is not good.

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Kevin Hasset > weather

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Kevin Hasset says this is due to crazy weather. Though, I want to just remind you because you're going to hear this kind of crap. Our seasonal average decline... is 308,000 jobs to the downside.

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The labor market report > negative 92,000 payrolls result

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It's negative 92,000 on the payrolls report. That's also crappola. Now, I'm going to take a quick look to see what else um if anything the suits have here. I've mostly just been reading this report, but again, a negative 92,000 read here is bad.

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Kevin Hasset > weather

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Kevin Hasset says this is due to crazy weather. Though, I want to just remind you because you're going to hear this kind of crap. That's Kevin Hasset gaslighting you like the the shill that he is.

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Black unemployment rate > 7.3% to 7.7%

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I want you to see the black unemployment. Does it show it here? Uh yes, here. Uh black unemployment rose from 7.3 to 77. You have to compare to the prior report to see this one.

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US Labor Market > negative data

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92K jobs uh report uh major miss uh participation rate collapses which uh would have skyrocketed uh the unemployment rate had it held. Uh and then on top of that uh we have uh negative 180k on the households. Right? This is a very bad report.

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Federal Reserve interest rates > zero rate cuts

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And the market is expecting two rate cuts this year. How many rate cuts are we actually going to get this year, Ross? Zero. Zero. don't do not expect rate cuts.

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Amazon > proposed investment in OpenAI

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Amazon's $50 billion investment into Open AI now could hinge on IPO or AGI. In other words, new strings attached. ... And until you do that, we're actually only going to invest $15 billion maybe because that's just still being negotiated.

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Nvidia > investment commitments to OpenAI

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This is starting to sound a whole lot like the walkback that Nvidia just pulled on OpenAI. Remember when Nvidia had that joint press release... Jensen kind of rugpulled that and oh no, no, we never had that idea.

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Nvidia > due to supply commitments

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The total supply related commitments that Nvidia has are $95.2 billion. In other words, in order for them to actually manufacture the product that they need for the next quote several quarters... They need to spend $95.2 billion.

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Nvidia > $95.2 billion

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The total supply related commitments that Nvidia has are $95.2 billion. In other words, in order for them to actually manufacture the product that they need for the next quote several quarters, which is probably three quarters, right? Just to get through the the rest of this calendar year probably or their fiscal year roughly the same. They need to spend $95.2 billion.

Subject

UBS > the stock market

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UBS just downgraded the stock market and Sockjen is freaking out about the consumer and private credit is getting worse yet again. Again, at the same time as UBS is downgrading the stock market.

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US Personal Savings Rate > collapsed

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we can see that recovery ended and has now started to collapse. Uh and it's collapsing relatively rapidly. In fact, starting on liberation day, we have had not an up day uh in the personal savings rate or month rather since this is calculated on a monthly basis. So that savings rate is compressing.

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Nvidia > earnings expectations

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Nvidia absolutely just dominated earnings as always. Eight out of eight of our last earnings reports. Nvidia's absolutely crushed it. And so here they are again beating on earnings.

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Private Credit Market > significant stress

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a lot of people are still actively concerned that private credit is collapsing in front of our eyes. And to some extent, they have a point of concern. We got talk about private credit funds having a lot of stress and selling for less than what they're worth.

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Collateralized loan obligation equity funds > 15 to 35 percent

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These companies are called Eagle Point Credit, Soundpoint Meridian, Pearl Diver Credit, Oxford Lane Capital, Carile Credit. Notice they all sound like they have really fancy institutional names. Great. All of them have lost 15 to 35% in less than 90 days. Those are massive plummets for collateralized loan obligation equity funds.

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Private credit defaults > 15 percent

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And unfortunately, UBS is now saying that private credit right up here, private credit might end up seeing defaults as high as 15%. They saw it as high as 13% just 4 weeks ago. Now they're revising that up even higher to 15% which suggests that the private credit rows are actually worsening in real time.

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Private credit default rates > increase by 3x to 5x

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Now they're revising that up even higher to 15% which suggests that the private credit rows are actually worsening in real time. Now defaults are currently only at 3 to 5%. Which means they expect defaults to five to 3x 3 to 5x.

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Agentic AI > the removal of intermediary software platforms for services

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AI in other words or agentic AI will eventually become so good that it will do a lot of things for us without software platforms. For example, what do you need Door Dash for if agents can just remove the friction of you using an app at all?

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White-collar workers > job displacement due to AI

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Now, they make the argument that this is ultimately going to lead to a lot lower consumption because white collar workers are going to lose their jobs. They're going to end up becoming delivery drivers until autonomous vehicles end up replacing them and then they literally have no work.

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Citadel Securities > a 11% year-over-year increase in software engineering job postings

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Now, Citadel Securities did end up responding to the Citrini piece, which I find is very interesting. They actually mentioned that job postings for software engineers right now are actually rapidly rising, up 11% year-over-year.

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The Federal Reserve > lower interest rates during economic instability

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That's because as soon as hoop hits the fan, the Federal Reserve will drive interest rates to zero. And guess who's going to benefit off that first? Rich or people who own assets.

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Citadel Securities > job postings for software engineers

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Citadel Securities did end up responding to the Citrini piece, which I find is very interesting. They actually mentioned that job postings for software engineers right now are actually rapidly rising, up 11% year-over-year.

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Robinhood > shares of private equity companies

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Robin Hood invested about $155 million into these venture equity positions. On day one, they're going to take about $125 million back. So, I guess they're not dumping all of it. They're going to be dumping about 80% of the shares that they had.

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Robinhood venture fund > meme token

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I think this Robin Hood venture fund will really trade like a meme token. rapid ups and downs with no fundamental trajection or trajectory at all.

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Wall Street > buyers for private equity assets

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It's a sign that once again Wall Street is looking for buyers for the riskiest part of private equity, the equity part. Remember the private credit side, which is where we're having a lot of issues in markets now.