“Given the evidence of both reported closures and documented transits, we assess that the Strait of Hormuz is operating under a regime of controlled, partial reopening rather than absolute closure. Iran appears to be selectively allowing vetted vessels—often smaller or politically allied tankers—to transit under strict conditions, while broader commercial traffic, especially large oil tankers, faces intermittent suspensions tied to security and ceasefire mechanics. This creates a moderate operational risk environment with predictable but limited passage opportunities rather than a total blockade.”