“Given unanimity across mood and mechanics pillars—both sides openly threaten severe strikes within weeks—and corroborating map analysis that any escalation imperils global energy chokepoints, the overall trajectory points toward a high-probability, near-term military flare-up. No material divergences exist between pillars; they converge on the same escalation narrative. Therefore, the risk posture is ELEVATED-RED: expect kinetic actions against Iranian infrastructure and retaliatory moves on U.S./allied assets, with secondary disruptions to oil flows and regional stability.”