“Given unanimity across mood and mechanics pillars—both sides openly threaten severe strikes within weeks—and corroborating map analysis that any escalation imperils global energy chokepoints, the overall trajectory points toward a high-probability, near-term military flare-up. No material divergences exist between pillars; they converge on the same escalation narrative. Therefore, the risk posture is ELEVATED-RED: expect kinetic actions against Iranian infrastructure and retaliatory moves on U.S./allied assets, with secondary disruptions to oil flows and regional stability.”

“Risk posture: Unstable-High but still man­ageable if Washington realigns words with capabilities. How the five key divergences reconcile: 1. Escort dilemma – The Navy has begun ad-hoc escorts using assets already in-theatre (amphibs, DDGs) while admitting it cannot sustain a full convoy system. The Pentagon is therefore accurate on long-term limits; political leaders are describing the short-term stop-gap. Bridging them requires either allied hulls or a scale-back in promised coverage. 2. Ammunition vs. victory – The stockpile warnings refer to precision interceptors and Patriots; Trump’s “decisive win” rhetoric is based on offensive air power that still has depth. Both can be true, but only for weeks. Unless resupply bills pass, the boast will expire. 3. Waiver vs. seizures – Treasury’s waiver legalises pre-existing cargoes; DOJ seizures target ships that hid ownership or sailed after the waiver window. Clarify criteria and the contradiction fades. 4. “War is over” vs. fresh strikes – Domestic politics drives the victory talk; CENTCOM’s timeline to grind down IRGC missiles is 4–6 weeks. Messaging gap, not operational gap. Synchronise statements with the phased campaign plan. 5. “No boots” vs. Marines deploying – The public pledge covered large combat formations in Tehran. The 5 000 Marines are for limited raids (Kharg Island, mines) and contingency extraction. Explicitly frame them as time-bound, objective-bound SOF/light-force packages. If these clarifications are made, allies will regain confidence, markets will steady and escalation can be capped.”