“The overall signal across the four pillars converges on a single picture: the U.S.–Iran confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz has entered a highly unstable phase, with both sides publicly signalling readiness for large-scale strikes while still leaving a visible diplomatic off-ramp. Mechanics dominates the narrative (credible threats, force movements, IRGC warnings, market odds) and is reinforced—not contradicted—by Mood (fear of escalation, market volatility, external stakeholders urging restraint). Machine and Map add supporting context but do not materially dilute the risk. Because no pillar provides evidence of a tangible de-escalatory breakthrough, the blended posture remains HIGH RISK, but not yet irreversible; the divergence is resolved by recognising that the apparent mix of “escalate” (mechanics) and “negotiate” (mood) are sequential bargaining tactics within the same coercive diplomacy track, not mutually exclusive outcomes.”