“Given the conflicting reports—some describing a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and others documenting limited ship movements—we assess that Iran is enforcing a calibrated, partial blockade rather than a total shutdown. This posture is designed to maximize economic pressure by hiking oil prices while retaining leverage for further negotiation. The risk of sudden escalation remains high, as any miscalculation or additional military action could rapidly transition this partial blockade into a full closure, dramatically tightening global oil markets and amplifying geopolitical tensions.”