“The apparent inconsistency between Trump’s statement “won’t be moved again” and prior deadline shifts can be reconciled as a deliberate rhetorical escalation: earlier extensions served to test Iran’s response, whereas this latest deadline is presented as irrevocable to maximize pressure. As a result, we assess the risk of kinetic or economic escalation as elevated over the coming days. However, the hardened ultimatum also creates a narrow diplomatic window, since Tehran must now decide whether to yield before facing genuinely enforced consequences.”