“With no direct contradictions among the assembled pillars, the overall risk posture is elevated but coherent: Iran, feeling emboldened by America’s perceived withdrawal victory (mood pillar) and simultaneously portraying itself as a strengthened global actor despite prior losses (mechanics pillar), is likely to press its newfound leverage regionally. Absent additional conflicting signals (machine and map pillars are silent), we project a sustained phase of Iranian assertiveness across the Middle East, testing deterrence thresholds and seeking to expand its influence among proxy groups and diplomatic channels.”