“Overall, we evaluate a moderate regional risk posture. The unsubstantiated claim about Pakistan’s LGBT population poses low-to-moderate domestic social tension risk due to potential stigma and misinformation. The large-scale Syrian refugee return from Lebanon highlights ongoing conflict volatility along the Lebanon–Syria border, representing a moderate humanitarian and security concern. Cuba’s planned release of over 2,000 prisoners under U.S. pressure suggests a cautious normalization of U.S.–Cuba relations with low risk of immediate escalation.”