“Conflicting narratives between high-profile US statements (mood) and on-the-ground reports (mechanics) have undercut the credibility of dramatic escalation claims, lowering the immediate likelihood of a large-scale military exchange. At the same time, targeted sanctions and revocations (map) maintain sustained pressure on Iran’s leadership. Overall, we assess a moderate risk posture: limited kinetic action but elevated information-environment risk that could inadvertently escalate tensions if left unaddressed.”