“Gold-linked equities sit at a crossroads where the macro ‘safe-haven bid’ (geopolitics, lower real rates) is still the map-level regime driver while name-level fundamentals and analyst enthusiasm have already re-rated the stocks 15-20x cash flow—well above diversified miners. Royalty/streaming vehicles (WPM, FNV, RGLD) retain structural advantages—low cap-ex, access to cheap 30-year debt—but that very scarcity premium is increasingly consensus, so incremental upside now depends on the bullion tape staying north of US$2,000. There is no mechanics signal of forced selling yet, so the theme is not breaking, but the absence of a fresh macro shock means the trade morphs from beta to carry. Net: the dominant pattern is still supportive, but the crowd is in and valuation is the choke-point; gains likely grind rather than spike unless another geopolitical shock arrives.”