“Risk posture: ELEVATED but not yet CRITICAL. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening, U.S. military preparations are expanding, and oil-market stress is visible. However, several data points indicate simultaneous search for an off-ramp (Trump’s public “progress” language, Iran’s counter-demands). The key divergence—Washington claiming talks, Tehran denying them—can be reconciled by the high likelihood that contacts are occurring through intermediaries (Pakistan/Oman/Europe) and that each side is tailoring its rhetoric to domestic audiences. Both narratives can be true: indirect, conditions-based exchanges exist, yet no formal, direct channel has opened. If back-channel traction stalls, the threat cycle (48-hour ultimatums, infrastructure strike warnings) could escalate quickly. Still, mutual awareness of economic pain and global pressure keeps a negotiated “window” ajar over the next 2-3 weeks.”