Financial markets are currently underestimating the significant risk that the ongoing Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, will cause a sharp slowdown in the global economy, with few effective tools available to shield markets from its increasingly entrenched impact. Despite this, the UK government is actively contingency planning for every economic eventuality, as UK bonds are already rattled. Concurrently, Gulf economies are demonstrating an extraordinarily low risk tolerance due to their vulnerability. While disruptions are not yet severe enough to provoke a global recession, Wall Street bank strategists are already advising on trades that would profit from a slow and steady stock-market selloff.