Escalating Middle East Conflict and Fertilizer Crisis Trigger Global Economic Downturn
PILLAR DIAGNOSTIC // WEEKLY · WEEK 13
“The global economy is expected to experience a tightening in resource supplies, particularly in fertilizers, as conflicts in the Middle East disrupt key markets. However, Asia's economic growth may mitigate some negative impacts by enhancing its global GDP share.”
THE MECHANICS
Tape & flow
Fertilizer prices are rising due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with anticipated tightening of the global potash market.
THE MACHINE
Operational momentum
Asia’s share of global GDP is expected to increase from 49.2% in 2025 to 49.7% in 2026 on a purchasing power parity basis.
THE MAP
Structure & constraints
Russia's suspension of ammonium nitrate exports is compounding challenges in the global supply of crop nutrients amidst ongoing shifts in global trade dynamics.
THE MOOD
Consensus & positioning
The global economy faces challenges due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, impacting growth and inflation, despite regional economic dominance indicated in the Asian Economic Outlook.