“Although U.S.–Israeli airpower has degraded Iran’s conventional forces and some critical infrastructure, Tehran retains enough dispersed missile, drone and proxy capacity to keep striking U.S. bases, Gulf shipping and Israel. Therefore the war is entering a protracted, attritional phase, not a clean ‘decimation’. Expect: 1) continued Iranian asymmetric attacks across the region; 2) periodic high-visibility U.S./Israeli strikes to re-impose deterrence; 3) rising pressure for limited ground raids on nuclear facilities, which would sharply raise escalation and economic spill-over risks.”