“Despite upbeat U.S. messaging, Tehran’s rejection of a requested cease-fire and evidence of continued military engagement indicate that the conflict is not on a credible two-to-three-week glide-path to closure. The apparent contradiction is best read as negotiating theatre: Washington oversells imminent victory to sustain domestic and market optimism, while Iran publicly refutes any capitulation to preserve leverage at home and abroad. Until verifiable steps—e.g., a Hormuz reopening, a mutually acknowledged truce framework, or troop draw-downs—materialise, the operational reality aligns with the Mechanics pillar: hostilities remain active and could still escalate. Accordingly, overall risk posture remains ‘elevated but contained’: headline optimism may calm markets intermittently, yet the underlying military and diplomatic fundamentals still support the possibility of sudden flare-ups.”