The Impending Fallout of Iran's Potential State Collapse
PILLAR DIAGNOSTIC // WEEKLY · WEEK 11
“The Iranian state is at significant risk of failing within the next year, leading to widespread chaos and human suffering. By understanding the mechanisms in place and historical precedents like Iraq, steps can be taken to mitigate this risk.”
THE MECHANICS
Tape & flow
The risk of national disintegration is highlighted, drawing a parallel to historical events in Iraq and Iran.
THE MACHINE
Operational momentum
Iran faces a potential risk of devolving into a failed state within the next year.
THE MAP
Structure & constraints
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THE MOOD
Consensus & positioning
An Iranian failed state would lead to catastrophe and chaos for millions of Iranians.