“We assess the overall risk posture as Elevated but Managed. Iran’s credible threats against U.S. energy infrastructure in the Gulf demand heightened vigilance and coordinated deterrence, while the alleged Russia–Iran cyber cooperation remains inconclusive given Moscow’s categorical denial. We resolve the DIV-INT-01 divergence by treating Ukraine’s intelligence as a warning flag rather than confirmed fact—maintaining a watchful stance on potential covert coordination but not attributing active joint operations without further proof. This calibrated position balances deterrence of Iranian kinetic or cyber strikes with diplomatic engagement to probe the validity of Russian denials.”