Vice President JD Vance has once again dominated the CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, securing 53% of the vote for his second consecutive win. Despite this strong showing among conservative activists, Vance's overall odds of winning the 2028 U.S. presidency have sharply declined to an all-time low of 18%, while rivals like California Governor Gavin Newsom see their odds rise to 17% and Marco Rubio stands at 11%.
JD Vance has secured a dominant 53% in the CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican nomination for the second year in a row. However, his overall odds of winning the 2028 U.S. presidency have simultaneously dropped to an all-time low of 18%, while rival Gavin Newsom's odds rise to 17%.
Agreed-upon facts
JD Vance's Strong CPAC Straw Poll Performance
Where narratives collide
No material split surfaced for this cluster—sources align on the core read.
Where sources say this may head next
Forecasted 2028 Presidential Election Odds