“Risk posture: ELEVATED BUT MANAGEABLE. Synthesis of pillars • Machine – Iran’s regular forces are battered, limiting large-scale conventional retaliation. • Mechanics – Tehran counters with asymmetric tools (missile salvos, cyber hits, infrastructure attacks) that keep Washington exposed to episodic shocks. • Map – The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical pressure valve; traffic is partially disrupted despite Iranian public assurances, pulling Gulf partners and the UN toward coercive options. • Mood – Mixed statements on cease-fire reflect a deliberate split-screen strategy: hard-line deterrence for domestic/ regional audiences while floating diplomatic “letters to Americans” to keep an off-ramp alive. Resolution of key divergences DIV-INT-01 (Negotiation narrative): Both sides use selective messaging. Iran’s foreign-ministry denials calm hard-liners, while U.S. claims of Iranian interest in talks reassure markets and allies. The divergence therefore signals bargaining, not stalemate; expect quiet back-channels to persist even as public rhetoric clashes. DIV-CROSS-01 (Hormuz guarantees vs. reality): Tehran’s promise of “safe passage” is conditional on recognition of its monitoring “toll booth.” Gulf governments reject this de-facto control and petition the UN for force authorization. The gap is thus structural: Iran seeks leverage through regulated access, the Gulf seeks freedom of navigation. A limited, internationally supervised maritime de-confliction regime is the likely compromise path. Strategic outlook (next 4–6 weeks) 1. Sporadic drone/ missile incidents and info-ops persist but stay below threshold that would trigger full U.S. escalation. 2. Maritime insurance premiums and rerouting continue, yet outright blockade is unlikely; incremental convoys or escorted corridors emerge. 3. Track for a narrowly scoped cease-fire tied to humanitarian access and Strait navigation, brokered by middle powers (Japan, France, Oman). Residual risk: High probability (≈40 %) of miscalculation around a high-value Gulf desalination or data-center strike that could still force rapid U.S. kinetic response. Overall, maintain elevated alert but exploit the diplomatic sliver now visible.”

“Current intelligence shows Iran pursuing a coordinated, multi-domain pressure campaign – missile, proxy, and cyber – to deter further U.S./Israeli strikes and to demonstrate regional reach. The pattern of target selection (air-defence sites, energy nodes, symbolic urban centres) and the limited warhead tonnage point to a calibrated strategy rather than indiscriminate escalation. Ideological rhetoric (“lunatics,” vows of unrestrained revenge) serves a domestic and deterrent messaging purpose but does not negate the underlying cost-benefit calculations evident in Tehran’s pacing and proportionality. Expect continued high-tempo but geographically contained strikes over the next 2–4 weeks, punctuated by cyber-operations and Houthi/Hezbollah proxy fire, with an elevated (but not yet open-war) risk of U.S. force involvement.”