“All pillars point to two discrete, well-corroborated accidents: (1) a Colombian military aircraft crash with ~66 fatalities and dozens injured; (2) a Bangladeshi bus plunging into the Padma River with ~23 fatalities. No contradictory figures or competing narratives surfaced, so the information environment is relatively stable. Because both stories originate in remote regions and are being reported consistently, the overall misinformation or escalation risk is assessed as Moderate-to-Low. We expect only incremental updates—mainly revised casualty counts and official investigations—rather than major narrative shifts.”