“The apparent contradictions can be reconciled chronologically: Reuters’ report of a temporary pause reflected a short-lived pullback while Indian refiners waited for clarity on U.S. waivers and freight premiums. Once a waiver window and Gulf-route security risks emerged, lifting spot prices elsewhere, Indian buyers swiftly re-entered the market, taking first 30 Mbbl and then expanding April bookings to 60 Mbbl. Thus, the overarching trend is not a binary buy/stop dynamic but an opportunistic, price-sensitive ramp-up with brief tactical pauses. Looking ahead, India is likely to keep Russian crude imports at elevated—but flexible—levels, scaling volumes in response to geopolitical shocks, sanctions latitude and freight economics. Overall risk posture: AMBER. Volumes will remain volatile and politically exposed, but structural energy-security logic favours continued flows.”