“Final risk posture: ELEVATED-TO-HIGH. The on-the-ground facts (Mechanics pillar) show a steadily worsening humanitarian situation in Lebanon—roughly 900–1,000 confirmed dead and close to, or slightly above, 1 million displaced. The diaspora-linked truck attack in Michigan underscores that regional violence already has international echo effects and could trigger copy-cat or retaliatory incidents. The sole structural divergence (Machine vs. Mechanics) stems from a single, much higher fatality figure (32,000) that lacks independent corroboration and appears to conflate broader Middle-East casualty statistics or rhetorical inflation with the narrower Lebanon timeline. Weighting source credibility and overlap, we privilege the health-ministry/UN range (≈900–1,000) and treat the 32,000 number as misinformation noise. With that clarification the pillars realign: the scale of displacement is consistent across sources, and the casualty count converges on the lower—but still serious—band. Expect continued civilian harm, displacement pressure on Lebanon’s fragile state, and heightened security concerns for Jewish and Lebanese diaspora communities.”