“The four pillars align around a single narrative: recent judicial and executive activities surrounding the White House and election policy face heightened public-relations pressure but limited immediate operational disruption. MAP and MACHINE pillars converge on the legal constraint that congressional approval is prerequisite for physical alterations or voting-rule changes; MOOD confirms reputational turbulence yet no direct contradiction of the factual base. With no unresolved divergences, overall posture is Moderate Risk: legal processes are predictable, but political sentiment could amplify headline volatility.”

“Regional energy infrastructure will remain under sporadic attack over the next 2-4 weeks, keeping roughly 10-15 % of Saudi output and smaller Gulf facilities intermittently offline. However, the probability of a large-scale U.S.–Iran escalation has fallen: Washington is signalling diplomacy (multiple strike postponements), while Tehran is leveraging threats to secure concessions rather than closing Hormuz outright. Behind-the-scenes talks are therefore likely—even though both sides publicly deny or mock them—pointing to a messy but progressive de-escalation by late April, with production gradually recovering and oil prices retreating from their spike.”