“All four pillars tell a coherent story: Beirut’s leadership has finally moved—at least on paper—against Hezbollah’s parallel military structure. While the mechanics and map pillars detail concrete bans and initial seizures, the mood pillar highlights how fragile popular confidence and political consensus remain, and the machine pillar underlines a rapidly worsening baseline. With no major factual divergences to arbitrate, the collective signal is clear: the country is entering a high-risk transition phase. Over the next 6-12 months expect (a) heightened domestic tension as Hezbollah tests the state’s resolve, (b) a non-trivial chance of Israeli pre-emption if border fire resumes, and (c) mounting economic and humanitarian stress that could erode the government’s newfound assertiveness. Overall risk posture: HIGH and deteriorating.”