“Across the four pillars the analytic picture largely converges on a single theme: Europe and other partners are materially stepping-up defence production and budgets (machine, map, mechanics), implying a stronger medium-term NATO war-fighting capacity. The only head-wind appears in the mood pillar, where repeated statements by former U.S. President Trump inject political uncertainty about future American commitment. Because the industrial and fiscal evidence points up while the political sentiment signal points sideways, the overall risk posture resolves to “guarded” rather than “elevated” or “benign.” In short, capability trends are positive but the alliance’s cohesion signal is noisy, so one cannot assign a low-risk label yet.”