“Overall risk posture: Guarded–elevated. Tensions around nuclear rhetoric and regional conflicts remain serious, yet both the mood and map pillars converge on a clear preference for diplomacy, de-escalation and arms-control mechanisms. The apparent divergence between urgent warnings (mood) and policy prescriptions (map) is resolved by their shared call for negotiations: leaders, institutions and civil society actors are all signalling that dialogue is the only viable path. If current diplomatic initiatives gain traction, the probability of catastrophic escalation diminishes; if they stall, rhetoric could harden and risk would rise quickly.”