“The information environment remains highly contested, but the preponderance of reporting confirms that Pakistan conducted strikes inside Afghanistan, causing significant civilian casualties, most plausibly in the low-to-mid‐hundreds. The Eid pause shows both sides retain channels for crisis management, yet renewed border fire after the truce underlines that escalation can resume quickly. Therefore the overall risk posture is "volatile stalemate": open war is unlikely to expand dramatically in the immediate term, but localised air/artillery exchanges and sporadic mass-casualty incidents remain probable. Divergence resolution: • Fatality counts (DIV-INT-01): Early Afghan health-ministry tallies ranged from "200+" to "400+" while international agencies have not independently verified numbers. We reconcile at an estimated 250–350 deaths, acknowledging fog-of-war inflation on all sides. • Targeting narratives (DIV-INT-02): Satellite imagery and eyewitness testimony point to at least one strike on a civilian rehab hospital; Pakistani statements emphasising purely military targets are assessed as strategic messaging to limit diplomatic fallout. It is most likely Pakistan struck mixed-use sites where Taliban elements were co-located with civilian facilities, giving each side factual basis for its claims. Net assessment: High likelihood of further tit-for-tat strikes within the next month; low likelihood (<10 %) of full-scale ground invasion. Diplomatic pressure from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Qatar can freeze escalations temporarily but will not resolve root grievances.”