THE MECHANICS

Tape & flow

—

Netanyahu and Trump assert that the objective of the ongoing conflict is regime change in Iran, while claims from US military sources insist that the primary military goals are limited to the destruction of Iran's military infrastructure.

THE MACHINE

Operational momentum

—

Iran possesses varying amounts of enriched uranium, with claims indicating 970 pounds and 460 kilograms as current stocks.

THE MAP

Structure & constraints

—

Iran maintains significant control over the Strait of Hormuz, with conflicting claims about its operational status and future access for naval vessels.

THE MOOD

Consensus & positioning

—

Iran's military capabilities are asserted to be largely destroyed by the U.S., despite claims of a lack of imminent threat from Iran and a refusal to negotiate ceasefires or diplomatic resolutions.

MAR 2026

Monthly Pillar Report

Confidence: 31%

“Persistent cross-pillar friction—especially between claims that (1) Iran’s military is already “obliterated” and (2) Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and continues missile attacks—suggests our knowledge environment is highly polarised and partially propagandistic. Internal conflicts (e.g., contradictory uranium stock figures and mixed messages on Hormuz) imply data gaps rather than simple deception. Politically, both sides signal openness to talks while simultaneously threatening escalation; this keeps the crisis in a volatile ‘pause’ rather than a resolution phase. Bottom line: narrative risk remains HIGH; operational risk MODERATE (talks can still fail quickly).”

Proposed Action

1) Flag the Strait-of-Hormuz status and enriched-uranium quantity as critical unknowns needing independent verification. 2) Recommend a ‘cautious engagement’ posture: continue monitoring military indicators while quietly probing genuine diplomatic channels. 3) Harmonise public messaging—avoid absolute claims (“navy is gone”) until corroborated—to reduce credibility erosion and narrative whiplash.

Mechanics

Tape & flow

Execution layer: liquidity, positioning, and how orders and narratives actually clear in the market.

Audit trail active

Machine

Operational momentum

Operating cadence: earnings, guidance, capital allocation, and the institutional machinery behind the name.

Iran possesses varying amounts of enriched uranium, with claims indicating 970 pounds and 460 kilograms as current stocks.

Audit trail active

The Map

Structure & constraints

Constraint surface: regulation, macro, geography, and structural limits that bound outcomes.

Iran maintains significant control over the Strait of Hormuz, with conflicting claims about its operational status and future access for naval vessels.

Audit trail active

Mood

Consensus & positioning

Sentiment and positioning: what consensus is pricing, where crowding builds, and how fragile the mood is.

Iran's military capabilities are asserted to be largely destroyed by the U.S., despite claims of a lack of imminent threat from Iran and a refusal to negotiate ceasefires or diplomatic resolutions.

Audit trail active

Systemic divergence ledger

12 conflicts detected

Machine

Internal

Iran has 970 pounds of uranium while another they have 460 kilograms.

Δ 7.00

Map

Internal

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz completely while denying any intention to do so.

Δ 6.50

Map

Internal

Iran's blockade is reported to be effective while claims suggest it remains open for certain countries.

Δ 5.50

Mood

Internal

Iran posed no imminent threat to our country while President Trump claimed to have obliterated Iran's military capabilities.

Δ 8.00

Mechanics

Internal

Netanyahu and Trump declare that regime change is the objective, contradicting claims that the US military does not aim to topple the Iranian regime.

Δ 7.00

MachineMechanics

Structural

Iran is reported to still possess hundreds of kilograms/pounds of 60 %-enriched uranium, yet U.S. officials say Iran’s nuclear program has already been completely obliterated.

Δ 8.50

MachineMap

Structural

Map states that Iran has successfully shut or can indefinitely keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, yet machine asserts Iran’s navy is combat-ineffective and its ballistic missile forces destroyed, eliminating the physical means required to control or blockade the waterway.

Δ 8.50

MachineMood

Structural

Iran is reported to retain roughly 460–970 lbs of 60 %-enriched uranium, yet U.S. officials ’s nuclear capability has been completely wiped out.

Δ 7.00

MapMechanics

Structural

The Strait of Hormuz cannot be simultaneously open and closed. The map pillar states it remains open to traffic, whereas the mechanics pillar reports it has been effectively shut by Iranian action.

Δ 8.00

MapMood

Structural

Map pillar says Iran is still able to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed—an outcome that requires a functioning naval or coastal-defence force—whereas Mood pillar claims the U.S. has already “largely destroyed” Iran’s military, leaving it with “no navy, no air force.” A country whose forces have been wiped out cannot simultaneously exercise active control over an international waterway.

Δ 6.50

MoodMechanics

Structural

Iran is being declared totally destroyed and militarily unable to act, while reports show it is still launching missiles and drones against regional targets.

Δ 8.50

MoodMechanics

Structural

Officials say Iran posed no imminent threat, yet battlefield reports describe ongoing Iranian attacks that clearly endanger U.S. and allied forces.

Δ 8.00

US-Iran Maritime & Trade Strategy

US-Iran Maritime & Trade Strategy

THE MECHANICS

THE MACHINE

THE MAP

THE MOOD

Monthly Pillar Report

Mechanics

Machine

The Map

Mood

Systemic divergence ledger

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